Weekend Elections

Prensa Libre has its final poll for Sunday's presidential elections in Guatemala. According to the poll carried out October 26 to 28, Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party leads 58.5% to 41.5% over Manuel Baldizon of LIDER. When you factor in blank and null votes (5.7%), Perez leads 54.6% to 38.7%.

It's pretty certain that the former general is going to win this weekend. However, Perez won three out of four November polls back in 2007 before he was ultimately defeated by Alvaro Colom. Obviously, this election is different from that one - Perez is more of a well-known commodity, the choice back then was the right vs. center/center-left, mano dura vs. a more comprehensive approach to violence.

While we can't know for sure how the victor is going to govern, I do worry about their plans to pursue more mano dura policies towards gangs and cartels. It's not really my area of expertise, but those policies didn't really work out to well (yet?) in Honduras, El Salvador, and Mexico. Each country's murder rate increased after the implementation of mano dura policies.

In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega is poised to win a first round victory. Boz has some thoughts on the elections as does Tim Rogers. While Ortega and the FSLN get pretty low marks for democracy and the rule of law, the economy is growing, poverty is declining, and the streets of Managua and the rest of the country are much safer than those of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. While I can't say that Ortega has been a force for democracy in the country (and might be bad in the medium- to long-term), I can understand why he is favored to win.

Honestly, I don't "care" who wins this weekend's elections. I don't care if it is Perez or Baldizon, Ortega or Gadea, or the FMLN or ARENA in March. It's more important to me that whoever wins governs in the best interests of the Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, and Salvadoran people.

ARENA - Don't call it a comeback

El Salvador.com

The ARENA party appears to have found new life five months before legislative and municipal elections in El Salvador. ARENA finished behind the FMLN with 32 legislative seats (out of 84) and 39% of the vote in 2009. It then lost the presidency months later which it had held for two decades. A terrible presidential candidate and postelection blues tore the party apart when twelve dissidents left ARENA months later and went on to form the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA) in January 2010. ARENA has 18 members of congress.

ARENA now looks poised to make a comeback in March's elections. However, it's not because they have done anything particularly well since leaving office (i.e., Decree 743, response to red alerts issued by Spain). ARENA is poised to make a comeback because most Salvadorans believe that security and economic conditions in the country have worsened since Funes took office. There's also just a general level of disenchantment with his government. These are really the same reasons that led to the FMLN winning in 2009 and the reasons that it will likely suffer some losses in 2012.

In March, we'll have the FMLN, ARENA, GANA, Democratic Center (DC) and Partido Popular (PP) as well as the Socialist Party of El Salvador (PSOE), the ex-PCN National Conciliation (CN), and the ex-PDC Party of Hope (PE) competing in municipal and legislative elections. The PCN and PDC were cancelled but they'll just compete under different names. 

GANA might take some votes from ARENA but I think that it is more likely that they will suffer the same fate as those that defected from the FMLN to form new parties (the PD, FDR, and MR anyone?).

Will a new ARENA emerge in 2012? We’ll just have to wait and see. They have a new code of ethics and have indicated a willingness to work with other political parties to advance the interests of the nation. 

May Poll Numbers in San Salvador

Two years into Mauricio Funes' five-year term in office, 65% of San Salvador's residents approve of the job that he is doing.* Fifty-eight per cent characterize his administration's performance as "good" and 7% as "very good." On the other hand, 27% say that Funes is doing a "very bad" job and 7% a "very bad" job (Funes recibe apoyo del 65% de la población).

Sixty per cent also say that they do not believe that the FMLN and Funes are resolving the country's problems. If that's the case, it's truly surprising that Funes' approval numbers have remain so high. I don't know for sure but Salvadorans might be comparing his performance to that of former President Tony Saca or to what might have happened had ARENA's candidate been elected. 

In that sense, Funes isn't doing a great job tackling the country's economic and crime problems but he is doing a better job than his predecessor and to anyone else who might have been elected in 2009. Either way, unless country conditions improve, it's hard to imagine his high approval numbers lasting for the next three years. That's not good for him or the FMLN heading up to the 2014 presidential elections. 

While Funes has his job for another 3 years, the country's mayors and members of congress stand for reelection in March 2012. Nine months out from the elections, the FMLN maintains a slight lead over ARENA. Twenty-seven percent of those polled indicated that they would vote for the FMLN if mayoral elections were held tomorrow while 25% would vote for ARENA. Thirty per cent said that they did not know for whom they would vote (FMLN y ARENA en cerrada lucha).

Approximately 10% said that they did not plan on voting. That leaves another 10% split among the remaining political parties. In mayoral elections, GANA has the support of 4.2%. While it remains unclear whether the PCN or the PDC will be allowed to participate in the March elections, neither is likely to make much of a splash. The two parties combined received 6% of the public's support (PCN - 3.6% and PDC - 2.4%). The CD and a generic independent candidate both receive 0.1%.

In terms of the Legislative Assembly, the FMLN's lead is more significant. Twenty-eight per cent said that they would vote for the FMLN if the elections were held tomorrow while 21% chose ARENA.  The survey results are roughly the same for congressional elections (GANA - 4.5%; PCN - 3%; PDC - 2%). 

Today's newspaper focus on Funes' high approval numbers is masking what appears to be a highly vulnerable FMLN heading into next year's elections. Given the problems in ARENA and the high approval numbers for President Funes during the last two years, I am a bit surprised that the distance between the FMLN and ARENA in voting intention isn't greater. In fact, while not entirely comparable, the FMLN's advantage over ARENA has declined in recent months (Poll Numbers in El Salvador). The FMLN used to have a 10 point advantage in voter intention for congress and 6 points for mayors. It's now at 7 and 2 points respectively. That can't be good heading in to the summer months. 

*The survey was carried out by JBS Opinión Pública for El Diario de Hoy during the week of May 14-18, 2011. The survey has a margin of error is +/-3.5% and a level of confidence of 97.5%. The survey was carried out among 1,193 residents of San Salvador. While San Salvador is the capital and comprises nearly 50% of the country's population, it's not a nationwide poll and shouldn't be taken as such.

Funes Remains Popular

After two years in office, a strong majority of Salvadorans still support President Mauricio Funes (Contrapunto). According to a CID-Gallup poll conducted the last week of March, 83% hold a favorable opinion of the president.

Favorable opinion of Funes increased 5% points since January's CID-Gallup survey (La Prensa Grafica). While we can speculate that the increase is the result of President Obama's visit to the country, we don't know for certain.

Fifty-one percent say that he is a strong leader, 34% a moderate leader, and 14% a weak leader.

A majority also remain confident that he will help resolve the country's economic (59%) and crime (60%)problems. The Salvadoran armed forces also get good marks from the citizens with 80% responding that it has performed "well or very well" in the area of security.

This is good news, but another article in Contrapunto this week worries about the uptick in murders and the overall deterioration in security that occurred during the month of March.
Finally, the survey reports that the FMLN and ARENA remain the two most popular political parties in the country with 38% supporting the FMLN and 18% ARENA.

What the People Say - El Salvador II

In addition to how Salvadorans evaluate Funes' performance, Mitofsky also asked about next year's elections.

The survey indicates that 31% intend to vote FMLN and 27% for ARENA in the upcoming congressional elections. Only 5% intend to vote for a third political party (Obviously not a good sign for GANA). Support for the FMLN declined from 34% in November while ARENA's support increase by 1%.

In 2009, the FMLN won 35 seats with 43% of the nationwide vote while ARENA won 32 seats with 39% of the vote.

In terms of their preference for mayor, 30% intend to FMLN and 27% for ARENA. The PCN, PDC, and GANA captured a combined 9% while another 34% remain undecided.

Eighty-three percent are interested in President Obama's trip to the country and 74% believe that the trip will be helpful or very helpful.

Forty-nine percent believe that the congress will do a good or very good job under Sigfredo Reyes's direction while 23% don't expect much change. Given that this is the first time that the FMLN controls the presidency on the congress' board of directors and and still holds the presidency of the country, that's pretty good news that only 11% think that Reyes in charge will be bad or very bad.

There's no clear winner for what policy Reyes should focus upon. Passing law to tackle crime and to combat corruption come in at 9%.