Murder in Guatemala

I know that I've written several posts about the murder rate in Guatemala in recent weeks. It is frustrating that the Guatemalan and international media keep writing about murders increasing in Guatemala when they are not.

It's not that I want them to write that things are rosy in Guatemala, they certainly are not. However, here are a few suggestions for how they could better characterize the situation.

While the murder rate in Guatemala has declined the last two years, it remains one of the most violent countries in the world. (True)

While the murder rate in Guatemala has declined in 2010 and 2011, it is not clear that overall violence including robbery, assault, rape, extortion, etc. is lower. (Not sure, but is more accurate than what people are writing)

While the murder rate in Guatemala continues to decline, citizens do not perceive the security situation to have gotten any better.

A decrease in the murder rate from ~50 to ~40 per 100,000 looks better on paper than it does on the streets of Guatemala.

Any other suggestions?

I'm hoping that the murder rate continues to drop in October, November, and December, but after reading the local papers the first few days of this month, I'm a bit worried.

Homicides up in Guatemala?

Yesterday, I came up with several questions about the violence in Guatemala. It wasn't an exhaustive list of questions and one group that I didn't question was nongovernmental organizations.

Why do some NGOs continue to write about an increase in the murder rate when it sure doesn't appear that it is increasing? Surely, they're not working hard to get Perez Molina elected.

Then later that day, the highly respected Mutual Support Group (GAM) announced that2,496 murders occurred during the first nine months of the year in Guatemala, a three percent increase over the same period in 2010. And I thought that that's not good.

The director of the Mutual Support Group (GAM), Mario Polanco said at a news conference that the 85.66% of the crimes committed between January and September were with guns.

He explained that of the 2.496 killed, 2.136 are men, including 40 children and 360 women, of which 9 are minors.

Polanco said the killings increased by 3% over the first nine months of 2010 when there were 2.421 homicides.

That didn't sound like go to well with my post on how murders are in decline. However, we have to remember that GAM doesn't actually measure homicides. GAM tracks homicides reported in the news. Carlos Mendoza at CABI tackled this on Thursday as well. Since they only count homicides covered in the media, they always under report, to varying degrees, how many people are actually murdered each month.

It would be more accurate to report that, based upon GAM's numbers, the Guatemalan media has reported 3% more murders during the first nine months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010. That’s not the total number of murders, just what the media has reported. Unfortunately, one then has to ask why the Guatemalan media has reported on more murders in 2011 compared to 2010 when the number of murders documented by the National Civilian Police has gone down during that time period.

Honestly, I wish the GAM's numbers were accurate. If they were accurate, Guatemala would be on a pace for approximately 3,328 murders in 2011 rather than the 3,900 - 4,100 we think that it is.

Homicides Soar in Central America?

A recent report from the United Nations, as summarized by the AP, states that homicides have soared in Central America over the last few years. Well, sort of. 

The AP article doesn't actually give any evidence that it has soared - it just gives 2010 figures - but why quibble. To really show that homicides have soared you need to tell us how many murders there used to be. We'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say that's the evidence is in the UN document.

Here's more from the AP article.

Honduras and El Salvador have the highest homicide rates in the world as killings reach a crisis point in Central America, a United Nations report said Thursday.

The study on homicides by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime blamed organized crime for the region's surge in violence.

Honduras had 6,200 killings in 2010 out of a population of 7.7 million people, while El Salvador with 6.1 million people had 4,000 homicides.

The 2011 Global Study on Homicide calculated a rate of 82.1 homicides per 100,000 people for Honduras and 66 per 100,000 people for El Salvador. Cote D'Ivoire in West Africa followed with 56.9 and the Caribbean nation of Jamaica with 52.1. The United States had a homicide rate of 5 per 100,000 people in 2009, the report said.

Honduras Human Rights Commissioner Ramon Custodio said Thursday that he was worried about rising crime and feared worse figures are yet to come.

Notice anything? That's right, the AP story on the world's most violent countries didn't even mention Guatemala. I wouldn't go that far. While the murder rate has been declining for the last two years, Guatemala is still a very dangerous country in which to live, work and travel, particularly if you are in Guatemala City.

In addition, if your headline is UN study: Homicides soar in Central America, you need to write about more than El Salvador and Honduras. We already know that Guatemala wasn't mentioned, but the same goes for Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica or Panama. If you want to make the point that violence has soared in Central America because it very well might have, you need to mention more than two out of the region's seven countries.

Murders in Guatemala

I know that I got a couple of angry voice mails the last time I said this, but the number of murders committed so far this year in Guatemala is down from the same period last year.

Initially, Prensa Libre reported that murders increased during the first seven months of 2011 compared to the first seven months of 2010. A few days, later, however, they had to retract that headline to instead read that murders actually declined. Oops.

During the first seven months of 2011, 3,366 people were murdered. While that number is still alarmingly high, it is down from the 3,434 murders committed during the same period in 2010. If the numbers remain steady for the rest of the year, Guatemala will finish the year with roughly 40 homicides per 100,000 people.

This rate would be lower than what it was the first year that Alvaro Colom took office when Guatemala had a murder rate of 43 per 100,000 in 2008 and much better than 2009 which had a rate of 46 per 100,000.

Now again, it's not to say that things are rosy in Guatemala. We know that they are not. And focusing on the total numbers of murders might not be the best way to measure citizen insecurity or to assess the effectiveness of the current government in combating crime. However, and this is where President Colom and his wife really are to blame for not having a candidate to represent UNE-GANA, two of the country's largest political parties.

They have no candidate out there talking about how 2008 and 2009 were terrible in terms of the country's murder rate, that 2010's murder rate improved slightly, and that the improvement seems to be continuing this year.

Maybe then there could have been a serious discussion of what has and has not been working over the last twenty-four months. Is police training working? Is CICIG working? Are people and businesses paying the extortion and no longer being killed? Or are the numbers wrong and the PNC has been incorrectly counting the number of murder victims?

Instead, Guatemala has a bunch of candidates and political parties demonstrating how tough they can be on an out of control crime situation and an international community ready to call Guatemala a failed state because of the escalating levels of violence in the country at exactly the moment that the murder rate is improving. Again, the murder rate is just one measure of crime. You would want some multidimensional measure of crime to better measure overall crime. And the Mutual Support Group (GAM) is always quick to say that it is not just the number of murders but their gruesomeness that is really sickening.

Unfortunately, if you want to find a country where the murder rate appears to be going up you only have to look south to El Salvador. As a result of a violent August, murders are up nearly 2% from the same period last year. As of last week, 2,755 Salvadorans had been murdered in a country with about one-third the population of Guatemala.

A NATO Force in Central America?

In late June, Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom brought up the matter of international military support in the fight against crime. His remarks came just before the presidential debate in which several candidates talked about the possibility of increasing the level of US troops in the region to fight drug trafficking. In an interview with the Guardian,

"This is a war without quarter," Guatemala's president, Álvaro Colom, told the Guardian. "There is a lot of infiltration, a lot of corruption. We need a Nato-type force to fight back."

And later in the interviewed

He suggested the region form "a type of Nato" to fight organised crime.

I meant to write up his call for a NATO-type force at the time, but I didn't exactly know for what he was calling. It just looked like Colom was simply calling for a military force comprised of soldiers from neighboring countries.that could confront common external enemies. They would also have the authority to cross each other's borders. His use of NATO was just confusing things.

Anyway, he brought it up again this week in an interview with Adam Thompson of the Financial Times.

Mr Colom, who is now in his final year in office, told the FT that while the region’s governments have learned what sovereignty means, the drug traffickers have not: while they travel through Central America almost at will, the region’s national armies and police forces cannot cross international borders without the permission of each country’s congress.

“What good is it if the forces of one country are pursuing drug traffickers who cross a river but then have to stop to avoid an international incident?” he said. “Why not have a type of Central American Nato?”

As it is, he says, too many security operations are hampered by having to communicate between authorities to solicit and then obtain the appropriate permission. “There are procedures that interrupt operations,” said Mr Colom. “Sometimes it is just a question of minutes but that can make all the difference.”

It sounds like President Colom is stating that the Guatemalan army has been handicapped by an inability to pursue drug traffickers and organized crime across its international borders (Mexico, Belize, El Salvador, and Honduras).As the army closes in on them, they dart across an international border to safety. It sounds plausible, but I can't say that I've come across a story where this has happened. The closest is the near miss on former President Alfonso Portillo who was arrested just before boarding a boat to Belize. If this has been a problem, the armies and border police could probably work something out short of forming a new Central American Treaty Organization (CATO).

If hot pursuit is a problem, they might be able work something out where there's a 24-hour hotline in place to authorize cross border operations. Another possibility might be joint operations or mixed-units that operate within so many miles of the frontier. These mixed units or operations would probably limit each population's reluctance to have another country's army operating within its border.

The region's armies need to increase their intelligence sharing capabilities, modernize their weapons (ships, planes, etc.), and increase their number of soldiers, among other things. If each country's army presently cannot handle drug trafficking and organized crime within its borders, combining these poorly prepared and equipped forces isn't going to do much good.

And this says nothing about the needed investments in social programs, the police, the courts, and state, local and federal government, etc.

Something's working in Guatemala?

Steven Dudley has an article at Insight that is worth checking out (Guatemala Arrests Show Something is Working). It details some of the recent successes that the Colom administration has achieved in the recent fight against organized crime in Guatemala - the arrests of Zetas, three suspects in the murder of Facundo Cabral, and three suspects in the San Jose Pinula murders.


Claudia Paz y Paz, the attorney general appointed in December 2010, is credited with much of the recent success. However, Dudley rightfully questions whether a Perez Molina administration will keep her on as AG.

Torres is already lagging in the polls behind a former military officer, Otto Perez Molina, whose possible connections to human rights abuses during the war and current political connections make it clear that he would remove Paz y Paz as soon as he took office.

But no matter what happens to the current attorney general, in her short time in office Paz y Paz has shown Guatemalans that change is possible, and that there are dedicated and determined officials in the Public Ministry. In other words, she has been a ray of light in a dark situation.

I wonder whether the potential backlash from removing Paz y Paz from her position will prevent Perez from replacing her, at least immediately. He might instead obstruct re-prioritize the office's mission so that it focuses on contemporary crimes rather than civil war-era crimes or crimes committed by military and former military officers.

This might be a good time for the US ambassador and others to highlight the important work that Paz y Paz and her office have achieved. They might also issue a statement that any attempt to weaken the office following the September 2011 elections would be seen in a very negative light and might result in a reduction of aid and/or some sort of punishment.

Facundo Cabral Killed in Guatemala

Los Angeles Times

Argentine songwriter and singer Facundo Cabral was shot and killed early Saturday morning while traveling from his hotel to La Aurora International Airport.  Cabral had just carried out two performances in Quetzaltenango and Guatemala City and was traveling to Nicaragua for additional concerts.

Cabral had intended to take the hotel bus to the airport but on Friday night he accepted a ride from Nicaraguan promoter, Henry Fariñas. Fariñas was critically wounded in the attack and authorities believe that he was the intended target of the ambush that took Cabral's life. The gunmen were traveling in three vehicles. One forced Fariña to slow down and then the two other vehicles opened-fire. Interior Minister Carlos Menocal said that they are holding back some details and that CICIG is involved in the investigation.

Tico Times

Condemnation of his murder and calls for justice came in from around the hemisphere. In Guatemala, about 300 people gathered at Constitution Plaza in front of the Metropolitan Cathedral to express their repudiation of the violence that claimed Cabral's life. (Prensa Libre)

"Sadly we are outraged by yet another violent crime that is causing terror, fear, and I cannot help thinking that his ideals cost him his life," said Nobel peace laureate Rigoberta Menchu, at the scene of the crime. "He loved Guatemala so much."

"I am deeply saddened by this shameful murder," said Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos.

Ecuador's President Rafael Correa called the killing "such bad news."

"Oh such pain," Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez tweeted. "Long live Facundo Cabral! We are crying with Argentina" and Latin America, Chavez said.

Argentina's top diplomat Hector Timerman echoed the "great sadness" on Twitter, and said "farewell, friend." (Tico Times)

The Argentine-born Cabral became famous in the early 1970s as a protest singer. However, he fled Argentina in 1976 during the country's dirty war. In 1996, Unesco declared him a "world messenger of peace” and he was later nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. (Global Post, LAHT, AP, AFP)

There's really nothing good to say about this. I can only hope that this shameful act that has caused Guatemala so much international embarrassment will be the beginning of better times in the country.

Voices from El Salvador

I highly recommend following the English-language Voices from El Salvador if you are interested in up-to-date news from the country. 

Here are some of their recent posts. Cabañas Anti-Mining Fight Featured on NPR, International Organizations Condemn Activist’s Murder and Call for Investigation and Body of Young Anti-Mining Activist Exhumed from Common Grave detail the ongoing violence against civil society in Cabañas and El Salvador more generally. 

While you're at it, you should also take a look at this weekend's New York Times article on First a Gold Rush, Then the Lawyers.

Voices also has two posts on the issue of food security - Part 1 and Part 2.

And here is their write-up on Funes' declining poll numbers.

Peten State of Siege Extended

President Alvaro Colom extended Peten's state of siege earlier this week. The state of siege was initially put in place following the massacre of twenty-seven people at the Los Cocos Ranch. According to Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz, Guatemalan authorities have already arrested dozens of people connected to the massacre. Interior Minister Carlos Menocal, however, said that authorities need more time to improve the security situation in the department.

Call me skeptical. December's state of siege in Alta Verapaz also led to the arrests of several Zetas as well as increased repression against civil society organizations. However, once the state of siege ended, the Zetas moved right back in. They're a little less conspicuous now, but they're back. It's not clear that it had any impact whatsoever.

Alta Verapaz is also smaller than the Peten, located closer to the capital, doesn't really border Mexico, and is much more populated. The Peten shares a very long border with Mexico, is sparsely populated, and is not nearly accessible to the capital. If a siege couldn't work in Alta Verapaz, there's no way one will work in the Peten, a department that comprises one-third of the nation's entire territory.

The state of siege is unlikely to work (long-term reduction in drug trafficking and organized crime) in the Peten and might not even have been necessary. While the massacre of farm workers was terrible, violence in the Peten has been on the decline in recent years. According to Carlos Mendoza,

Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants in Petén reveal that violence was on the decline, compared to 2008 when it recorded a rate of 77, which fell to 71 in 2009 and reached 60 in 2010.That explains why, with a total of 366 homicides last year, ranking improved Petén department of homicidal violence, to occupy the 7th position out of 22.This means that in 2010 there were six departments even more violent than Petén.

The violence is extreme in Peten and Guatemala, but homicide rates have been surprisingly flat for the last several years.

That's why I said that one should not have concluded that Guatemala was on the verge of becoming a failed state even following the Los Cocos massacre. It was a horrible event, but one event does not make the country a failed state.

And while the state of siege probably won't work and might not have been needed, maybe it will make Guatemalan's feel better and make it look to the international community that Guatemalan authorities are taking the threat of organized crime and drug trafficking seriously.

Colom Declares a State of Siege in Peten

Purple arrows depict main drug trafficking routes.

On Monday night, President Alvaro Colom declared a state of siege in the Peten. The state of siege suspends eight constitutional rights and will last until next Tuesday. 

I don't have much confidence that a one week state of siege is going to do much good. I hope that I am wrong, but the recent history proves otherwise. The Peten is too large. Guatemala does not have enough police or military. What they do have lacks the necessary resources to take on the Zetas in the area. I'm not even convinced that the perpetrators are still in the country. (Has Mexico sent troops to the border?)

The site of the last state of siege, Alta Verapaz, was a much small department. It was closer to the capital. It also had a much smaller border with Mexico. And in that prolonged siege, authorities were successful in capturing no more than two dozen members of the Zetas and other drug cartels (that's being optimistic). And shortly after the siege ended, drug traffickers moved right back in.

We also still don't know much about Otto Salguero, supposedly the man that the Zetas were looking for. According to President Colom, Salguero owns several ranches and hundreds of cattle. The government seems to be working under the assumption that he was somehow being extorted by the Zetas and/or was involved in drug trafficking. However, they do not have any hard evidence that that is the case.

Authorities have also been unable to find a connection between the massacre at the ranch and the killing of Haroldo Leon on Saturday. Leon was the brother of Juan Jose "Juancho" Leon, a drug trafficker killed by the Zetas in 2008.

El Periodico also has proposals from three presidential candidates (Adela de Torrebiarte, Rigoberta Menchu, and Juan Gutiérrez) to improve security in the country.

See also AFP, AP, and Siglo XXI.

Massacre in Peten

According to the National Civilian Police (PNC), at least twenty people were killed on a farm in the department of Peten in northern Guatemala. According to Director Jaime Leonel Otzín, the PNC is attempting to determine whether today's massacre is linked to yesterday's killing of Haroldo Waldemar Leon Lara.


Haroldo Leon was killed while traveling with Q250,000 to pay an estate bill.  He is the brother of Juan Jose "Juancho" Leon, a Guatemalan trafficker who was killed by the Zetas in 2008. (See Prensa Libre and Miami Herald)


***According to the most recent El Periodico and Siglo XXI versions of the massacre, 25 men and 2 women people were decapitated. There are no signs of gunshots. 


According to El Periodico, the killers left a note with a message directed towards an unnamed businessman. Siglo XXI says nothing about a note but does say that the 27 men and women worked on the Los Cocos farm where they were killed and that the farm belonged to Haroldo Leon. 

Malnutrition, Violence, and Investment

Several recent reports do not put Guatemala in a positive light. First, the European Union published a study that found that Guatemala has the highest rate of child malnutrition in all of Latin America. Almost 50% of children under the age of 5 suffer from chronic malnutrition. The EU's Rafael Señán Llarena added that Guatemala's malnutrition rate is higher than that of Haiti and among the five worst in the world.

Second, the Mutual Support Group (GAM) voiced its preoccupation with the continued violence in the country. During the first three months of the year, there were a total of 1,240 victims of violence, including 116 women and 3 girls. 874 of the victims were killed while the remaining 366 were "only" injured.

On the positive side, this number is a decrease from the 909 deaths reported during the first three months of 2010. However, on the negative side, both February (295) and March (304) murders increased after a "calm" January (275). GAM is also worried about the increase in massacres and the number of lynchings.

These numbers include some of the 22 police officers who have died so far this year (some off duty). At least 60 officers were killed last year.

Finally, Guatemala fell eight places (86th to 94th) in the World Economic Forum's Global Information Technology Report's rankings. 138 countries were in the survey.

According to the report, the country is at a disadvantage in terms of the number of days to enforce a contract, the perception of the effectiveness of the laws, the preparation of ICT staff, the quality of education in mathematics and science as well as the quality of the educational system in general.

[The country] also received low scores on the issue of the importance of these technologies in the vision of the Government, intellectual property rights, the acquisition of technologies, production of computers as a percentage of imports and the number of procedures to open a joint-stock company.

One last thing - Rigoberta Menchu's Winaq Political Movement officially became the 27th political party certified by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) for this year's election. I thought that this had already occurred, but I guess not. Menchu sees Winaq's successful formation as a poltical party as an achievement for the indigenous people of Guatemala and all the Americas.

Reinforcing the Border - The Guatemala / Belize Border, that is

Although several Peten mayors recently requested a new state of siege in their department, Interior Minister Carlos Menocal today dismissed that possibility. According to Menocal, the government lacks resources to carry out sieges in other departments. While true, it's probably not what people want to hear given the positive evaluation most Guatemalans (though obviously not all, especially indigenous organizations) have showed towards the Alta Verapaz siege.

On the other hand, Belize's Ambassador to Guatemala is warning his countrymen of potential spillover effects from drug trafficking into their country. That spillover might come sooner rather than later as Belize says that the Guatemalan government is preparing for military operations in the Peten.

Belize’s Ambassador to Guatemala, H. E. Alfredo Martinez, told Amandala on Monday that there is already evidence that Guatemala’s narcotics problems are trickling to this side of the border. Martinez informed our newspaper that the Government of Guatemala is about to dispatch Special Forces soldiers to conduct regular foot patrols in the southern areas of Peten, near the border, while Belize military will do coordinated patrols on this side of the border.

I can't imagine that this is going over well with Belizeans. They already have one of the world's highest murder rates.

2010 was a record year for murders - and the new high mark for homicides is far, far higher than the previous record holder.

That would be 2008 when 103 murders were recorded; unofficially 2010 has seen 132.

That is 29 more than the previous record in 2008 - an increase of 29% - which is the greatest year to year increase since 2001 when the number of murders surged by 40%.

And even more alarming is that the 132 murders pushes Belize's murder rate per one hundred thousand to 40. That puts Belize officially among the highest in the world - and most likely in the top 10 worldwide.

And like Guatemala, there has been a "spike" in the killing of women (17 in 201). There were also 9 victims under the age of 16.

Women in Latin America and Guatemala

Earlier this month, much of the world turned its attention to Brazil for the inauguration of the country's first woman president, Dilma Rousseff .  Rousseff joined Laura Chinchilla of Costa Rica and Cristina Kirchner of Argentina as one of the region's three female heads of state in Latin America.

Today, the region ranks second only to Nordic Europe in terms of the percentage of women elected to parliamentary-level positions as seen in the figure above.  While not democratic, Cuba counts an even larger share of female representatives with 43%.

It's possible that Sandra Colom de Torres or Zury Rios Montt will join the ranks of Latin American heads of state later this year, but even if neither of them does, Guatemala had made important strides in recent weeks as it relates to women occupying positions of power.  In the last few weeks, women were appointed to the critical positions of Public Prosecutor and Comptroller General.

Claudia Paz y Paz was named Public Prosecutor and head of the Public Ministry for four years and will be in charge of the agency for criminal investigation and prosecution, while Nora Segura is the new Comptroller General, with a five-year term and will be in charge of auditing government expenditures, beginning with the 2011 budget, of 6.8 billion dollars.

Paz y Paz and Segura join Blanca Stalling who President Colom reappointed as director of the Criminal Public Defense Institute, an institution that oversees the legal defense of accused criminals, and Heydi Gordillo, the secretary of the National Council for Migrant Services.

While these are important appointments, women unfortunately still comprise only 12% of Congress and 2% of the country's mayors (as of 2009).  In addition to the relative and absolute low number of female elected officials, Guatemala remains one of the most dangerous countries in in the world when it comes to violence against women. 

El Periodico has a followup on the death of Emilia Margarita Quan Staackmann, a young thirty-three year old anthropologist killed in Huehuetenango last month (see here).  Quan was one of 838 women killed under violent circumstances in Guatemala last year. According to CONAPREVI, violence against women has increased each of the last ten years in the country and they fear that the numbers will continue to rise.

Guatemala - Not So Violent Year?

The AP has a story floating around documenting the toll that gunshot victims have on Guatemalan emergency rooms.

Massive numbers of cases have stretched the San Juan de Dios Hospital, Guatemala City's largest, to the breaking point. The medical facility, along with the city's Roosevelt Hospital, treated 1,224 gunshot and knife-wound patients from January to November this year...

Health Minister Ludwig Ovalle says treating victims of violence costs about $44 million, or about 10 percent of the department's total annual budget.

You can check out photos from Guatemala's emergency rooms here.

While you wouldn't know it, the total number of murders committed in 2010 declined relative to 2009 (Inside Costa Rica).  As of Christmas, 6,502 murders had been reported, down 6% from the 6,948 murders reported last year. 

In terms of where the murders occurred, approximately 58% occurred in the department of Guatemala (a department with 21% of the country's population).  Escuintla finished second with about 12% of the murders (and 4% of the population).  While the total number of murders were down, authorities said that there had been a greater cruelty in perpetrating such crimes (beheadings and signs of torture).

In terms of the victims, 178 urban or suburban bus drivers were killed.  According to the Mutual Support Group (GAM), store owners and employees were also targets of crime with 101 killed, often the result of extortion gone bad.  Forty-eight police officers were also killed. 

In terms of the perpetrators, most of the killings were linked to organized crime and gang-on-gang conflict (Xinhua). 

The Guatemalan Interior Ministry estimated 60 percent of the country's murders were committed by gangsters against ordinary citizens. Another 25 percent were caused by turf wars between the gangs, and the remaining 15 percent were due to crimes of passion or robberies.

While I don't think that anyone should be out celebrating the 6% drop in murders, sorry to say, but it's better than a 6% increase.  I'm hoping for a safe and happy new year, but I am worried.

Why Alta Verapaz?

Prensa Libre has why President Colom selected Alta Verapaz for a state of siege this past weekend.  Colom agreed that his government could just as easily have targeted San Marcos, Petén, Zacapa or Izabal. 

However, it was the overwhelming presence of the Zetas in Alta Verapaz that pushed it to the top of the list.

“En Alta Verapaz, la presencia de los Zetas es fuerte. Precisamente por eso, y para optimizar mejor el mecanismo de poder allanar, capturar y confinar personas sin orden judicial, era importante”, refirió el gobernante.

From reading Siglo XXI, it sounds more like Alta Verapaz was chosen first and operations in the other departments are to come.  They are also "candidates."

Hemispheric Brief has more links on the recent developments.  However, I just want to add that the shooting of seven people in a bar in La Libertad was in the Peten, not Alta Verapaz.

The Peten - the next target?

One of the reasons why we should be skeptical about this weekend's state of siege launch in Alta Verapaz, at least when it comes to the country as a whole, comes from a story in today's BBC News.

Visit Guatemala's Peten region on the border with Mexico and Belize, and it soon becomes clear why Mexican drug cartels are moving some of their operations into Central American nations.

The Peten, a scarcely populated rainforest covering more 30,000 sq km (11,500sq miles), was the cradle of Mayan civilisation.

Today it is widely considered a haven for criminal activities ranging from human trafficking to illegal logging, and, principally, drug smuggling...

Only 250 young soldiers are in charge of patrolling a 5,000sq km area of the Peten.

No matter how successful (or not) the Alta Verapaz operation is, there are plenty of other areas in Guatemala where the DTOs can operate with near total impunity.

And even if the Guatemalan and Mexican authorities somehow close off the land and air routes, there are always the sea routes.  Fox News (see here, here, and here) has had several stories in recent days about the lack of security in the Peten and Alta Verpaz and the two regions were also the focus of a Mexico Wikileaks cable (See here and here).

State of Siege in Alta Verapaz

As I am sure that you've heard by now, Alvaro Colom has declared a state of siege in northern Guatemala.  Hemispheric Brief has a pretty comprehensive write-up on the operation so I'll just quote a bit and send you there.

The Guatemalan military declared a state of siege in the northern province of Alta Verapaz Sunday, allowing the army to “detain suspects without warrants, conduct warrantless searches, prohibit gun possession and public gatherings, and control the local news media.” The AP reports that the measure comes amidst growing concerns over Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) active in the region, specifically los Zetas. For now it appears the state of exception will be in effect for at least one month, but President Alvaro Colom indicated Sunday that he would consider extending it for “as long as necessary.”

The president’s spokesman Ronaldo Robles, meanwhile, said the measures were intended to “bring peace to the people and recover their confidence in the government.”

So far, the Guatemalan Government is saying little about the siege.  Last night, the offensive might have led to the arrest of fifteen people linked to organized crime, but neither the Minister of Defense Abraham Valenzuela nor the Interior Minister Carlos Menocal has confirmed the arrests (Prensa Libre).

Claudia Samayoa (Unidad de Protección a Defensoras y Defensores de Derechos Humanos, Udefegua) has criticized the state of siege by arguing that that last seven states of prevention have failed.  On the other hand, the Archbishop of Guatemala Óscar Julio Vian considers the siege necessary in order to bring security to the people of Alta Verapaz (Siglo XXI).  Colom also said that he did not like the idea of a state of siege but he believes that it is necessary to search homes, to obtain information, and to capture people (El Periodico).

Obviously, I don't think that anyone views the state of siege in Alta Verapaz for thirty days or so a long-term solution to the insecurity lived by the inhabitants of the department or the country.  In the short-term we're likely to see (hopefully?) some high profile arrests and a period of calm in the department while members of organized crime, particularly the Zetas, go underground or simply relocate during the siege.  That would be good for the people of this department, but not so much for those living in neighboring areas. 

On the other hand, we could see an escalation of violence in Alta Verapaz (Ciudad Juarez anyone?) as drug traffickers and organized crime dig their heels in against a poorly trained and equipped Guatemalan military.

Stay tuned.

Honduran Soccer Field Massacre

Hondurans suffer another massacre.

A carful of attackers armed with assault rifles drove up to a football field in a poor Honduran neighborhood Saturday and opened fire, killing at least 14 people.

Armando Calidonio, vice minister of security, said the gunmen shot from point-blank range at the victims, who were known to gather there to play football.

Ten were killed at the scene and four died as they were being taken to the hospital. More were wounded — some gravely, Calidonio said, though the number was not clear.

The attackers numbered about five, but police did not have any suspects.

"We still do not know the motive of this tragedy," Calidonio told reporters.

Zona Viva in Guatemala City

Unsurprisingly, both Guatemalan nationals and foreigners have avoided Zona Viva since last week's shooting at the Taco Inn that left three people dead.

Initial reports indicate that dining was down 40% since last week's shooting.  However, it's still unclear how many people are avoiding Zona Viva because of the killings or because of how uncomfortable they feel surrounded by such high levels of "security."

The National Civilian Police, the Municipal Traffic Police, the Army, and private security have all increased their presence in the area with around the clock patrols.  Two hundred agents patrolled the streets last week and their numbers increased to 400 over the weekend.