Murders on the Decline

Contrapunto has a new article detailing some of the progress made by the Funes administration in tackling violence in El Salvador.  However, they also caution against reading too much into any claims about a significant sustained decrease in the murder rate.

According to official reports, between January 1 and October 13, 2010 the total number of murders declined compared to the same period in 2009.  There were a reported 3,157 homicides for an average of 11 per day in 2010 versus 3,449 homicides for an average of 12.1 per day in 2009.  Clearly that is good news and provides a glimmer of hope that the Funes administration has implemented some successful crime reduction policies.

However, Contrapunto reminds us that according to the World Health Organization homicides rates greater than ten per 100,000 are considered an epidemic.  El Salvador still has a homicide rate five times higher.  There's also no guarantee that the reduction is permanent or will even hold before the year comes to an end.   

These are small samples indicate that there is progress, but so far not much. The magnitude of the massacre is still very high, when looking at homicide rates. For example, without complete records (until 13 October both years) in 2009 would have been a homicide rate of 60.5 per 100,000 inhabitants. And in 2010, a rate is 55.3 per 100,000 inhabitants.

All this taking into account the 2007 population census which says that the Salvadoran population is 5.7 million. But it should also clarify that the rate is obtained from an annual cumulative and not 9 months and 13 days.

One can always hope.

Other crimes such as theft, robbery, extortion, auto theft, manslaughter, robbery and vehicle theft of merchandise have also decreased. Kidnappings, however, increased from 18 to 20.