Wednesday, November 3, 2010

The next two years

If you haven't already checked out Adam Isacson's Just the Facts entry on  The House Republicans and Latin America, I would encourage you to do so.

Just a few more things to add to his analysis.  Adam's right to say that the House Republicans will likely take a tougher stance on leftist governments in the region such as Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. 

However, I can also envision a tougher stance on other left-leaning governments such as Ecuador, El Salvador, Brazil, Argentina, and Guatemala.  Even if they don't do anything, these countries will probably draw the ire of several Republicans simply not taking a harder stance against the first four countries.

I thought that the Democrats did not speak out strongly enough in support of human rights and democracy, particularly when it came to the coup in Honduras.  Now we might here a lot of talk about human rights and demoracy that very few people feel will be sincere.

Free trade pacts with Colombia and Panama are possible but unlikely.  I can't see either party really pushing them through in this environment.  According to a WSJ/NBC poll earlier this month, 53% of all Americans believe that FTAs have hurt the U.S.  The percentage of Americans believing that FTAs have hurt the US has been on the increase since at least 1999 when it stood at 32%.
   

I agree that we are likely to hear stronger calls for increased in military and police aid to Mexico and Central America, especially with the recent killings of US citizens in Mexico.  However, Congress won't authorize any additional taxpayer money to be spent overseas.  It will be easier to support Obama's efforts at militarizing the US-Mexico border (where 30 tons of marijuana were recently discovered) while at the same time continuing to criticize him for not doing enough.
 
There'll likely be a shift in rhetoric away from statements about comprehensive reforms necessary to tackle our drug war to questions about why they're not doing enought to fight their drug wars.  
 
We'll also have to start looking towards late next year and early 2012 when Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador all hold national elections.  A Republican House will be more likely to inject itself into these elections which won't be good.

Update: I forgot to mention this a few minutes ago, but the most important outcome from Tuesday night's vote is probably the failure of Prop 19.  While I am not against the legalization of marijuana, I think that its passage would have severely strained US-Latin American relations.

No comments:

Post a Comment