While campaigning cannot officially start for a few more months, parties and candidates are beginning to position themselves for the contest. IPS had an article last week that discussed the early start to elections in Guatemala. Early starts are nothing new and no one should be surprised that this campaign season has already begun.
At times, the TSE fines political parties for beginning their campaigns before the official start but the fines are typically inconsequential so no one pays much attention. UNE was fined $100 for using Sandra Torres de Colom image in May and it was recently fined another $125 for promoting her image even though she is not a candidate. The TSE has asked for the authority to raise the maximum fine but, as you can imagine, politicians aren't enthusiastic about do it.
Another problem is that it's difficult to distinguish between proselytism which is allowed and campaigning which is not.
The electoral law recognizes proselytism as the obligation of parties to train, educate their members and invite citizens to participate.
On the contrary, campaigning begins after the call to the elections, which will be on 2 May and at that stage parties can proclaim and elect candidates for Office.Another other interesting discussion from the article is that, as of today, several of the most likely 2011 candidates are barred from running under existing rules. Article 186 of the constitution would seem to ban Sandra Torres de Colom and Zury Rios Montt. Torres should not be able to run because she is related to the current president. Zury Rios Montt, on the other hand, should not be able to run because her father came to power in a military coup.
Former president Álvaro Arzú is a third candidate who will have trouble running. Article 187 bans presidential reelection under any circumstances.
The IPS article does not talk about Harold Caballeros of Visión con Valores (Viva). Caballeros might not be able to run because Article 186 also prohibits the leaders of religious groups and cults. I'm not sure that anyone knows what is going to happen next year, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them find a way to run.
The uncertainty about Sandra Torres de Colom's candidacy has not prevented UNE and GANA from establishing an alliance heading into next year's elections. UNE describes itself as a social democratic party while GANA is a party on the right of the political spectrum. In the 2004 presidential election, Oscar Berger of GANA defeated Alvaro Colom. However, the two legislative blocs have been working together in congress in recent times.
While the alliance has not identified its presidential or congressional candidates, it has identified 250 mayoral candidates. However, UNE and GANA said that they are just naming the candidates that they will support in the future, nothing more, because any more would be in violation of the rule that outlaws campaigning until May. President Alvaro Colom also replaced thirteen cabinet-level posts, including five regional governors, so that they can
In other election news, several parties are trying to convince Nineth Montenegro to run as vice president or to head their national list of congressional candidates. These parties include Viva, the Centro de Acción Social (Casa), and Compromiso, Renovación y Orden (Creo). In other news, a policeman in Montenegro's security detail was killed this weekend. Initial indications are that he was killed during a robbery in Chiquimula, but given the threats against Montenegro over the last several years, authorities are continuing to investigate.
Elections are still several months away. I'll start trying to make sense of the two dozen parties at the end of the year or in January. However, all we know right now is that Otto Perez Molina is the front runner to be the next president of Guatemala. Polls consistently place Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party ahead of don't know / not saying. In January, twenty-nine percent said that they would vote for Perez Molina and in August thirty-four percent favored him. I've also seen references to an October poll that has over fifty percent supporting him.
In the January poll, of the individuals named, Suger and Colom tied for second at 6.3%. In the August poll, Perez Molina was followed by Giammattei with 5.5% and Alvaro Colom with 4.7%. Giammattei is currently in jail and neither Colom nor his wife should be able to run. But, who knows?
Other than saying that Perez Molina is the front runner, there's not much one can say with certainty about next year's election.
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